Read the latest StormTrack 5 Forecast

POSTED: 6:28 PM Feb 27 2013   UPDATED: 3:26 PM Mar 04 2015
StormTrack 5 Team

MILD AND BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING

PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT, POSSIBLY HEAVY...FLOODING CONCERNS

FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY

FLOOD WARNING IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

WINTER WEATHER ALERTS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

BIG TEMPERATURE DROP WITH SOME SNOW THURSDAY

CALM WEATHER HEADING INTO WEEKEND

This Afternoon: Rain developing again late. Very mild and breezy. Highs 57-64. Southwest winds 5-20 mph.

Tonight: Rain showers continuing and changing to wintry mix overnight in southwest Virginia. Lows in the 30s. Northwest wind 5-15 mph.

Thursday: Sleet or freezing rain changing to snow in the morning. Very cold and breezy. Temperatures falling through the 20s. North wind 5-15 mph.

Thursday Night: Few mountain flurries or light snow showers early...otherwise partly cloudy and frigid.  Lows 8-15.  Northeast winds 5-10 mph.

Weather Summary:

We are tracking a departing area of high pressure that will bring winds from the south and southwest today.  With these strong winds out of the southwest, there's a HUGE temperature gradient this afternoon across the area.  Low 70s from Johnson City southward with upper 40s being observed from Scott County northward.  With such strong winds, a Wind Advisory is in effect through the evening for all of Northeast Tennessee, along with Russell, Washington and Scott Counties in southwest Virginia.

As a slow moving cold front has moved through the area.  Behind this front, the air flow will run parallel to an upper level disturbance.  Rain could be heavy at times through tonight, especially near the KY/VA line.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few renegade thundershowers today.  Breezy conditions will ensue as well, especially across the higher elevations.

With heavy rain in the forecast, we will still need to be alert for the dangers of rising water on streams/rivers, as we've seen throughout the course of the day over southwest Virginia. Snow pack is melting and the ground is saturated. This is something worth keeping an eye on as rainfall totals could exceed one inch (2" of rain possible near the KY/VA line).  A Flood Watch is in effect for southeast Kentucky and most of southwest Virginia through Thursday.  Flood Warnings are in effect for parts of southwest Virginia mainly through this afternoon.

Behind this passing cold front, we are keeping our eyes on a storm system that has intensified over the Rockies.  A very pronounced jet stream, cold air and this storm system will bring wintry weather back into the region.

Late tonight and early Thursday, colder air rushes into the Tri-Cities.  Temperatures will drop very quickly!  Some models are bringing in warmer air aloft, so rain will change over to freezing rain and sleet from northwest to southeast early Thursday morning, likely around commute time.  This will then change to snow along the KY/VA line first before changing to snow and sleet in the Tri-Cities and areas pointing eastward Thursday morning.  Some accumulation appears likely at this point, especially near the KY/VA line.  Lift along the higher terrain will result in more accumulations.  Factors that will limit accumulation: 1. The moisture of the soil in areas that have flooded in southwest Virginia.  2. The warm temperatures across northeast Tennessee.  With such a strong storm system, we still think that accumulations of up to 3" are possible in the Tri-Cities and around 2" to 5" near the KY/VA line (more possible in higher elevations that change to snow more quickly). Check back for updates on this possible winter storm.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for all of northeast Tennessee, along with the NC High Country up through Smyth County. A Winter Storm Warning is in place until Thursday afternoon near the KY/VA line for tonight and Thursday, including Russell, Washington and Scott counties in SWVA.

High pressure fills back in Friday through early next week. As a result, the air will descend and the weather will be less active.  We'll see lots of sunshine as we wrap up the first week of March and head into the second week!  Temperatures will slowly make their way up again during this time.  A chance of rain is possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week, as a low pressure system rides up the Gulf.  Models are in disagreement with that at this time.

Highs in the 30s Thursday and falling...40s Friday and near 50 this weekend.  Low to mid 50s through early next week.  Lows in the 30s tonight, 10s Thursday and Friday night, and near 30 Saturday and Sunday nights.

We "Spring Forward" one hour Saturday night!

Our average high is 55°, low 31°.

Meteorologists Chris Michaels and Dave Dierks