WE ARE TRACKING HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER NEXT WEEK
TRACKING A DISTURBANCE IN THE TROPICS AS WELL
This Afternoon: Mix of clouds & sunshine. Scattered showers and thunderstorms (40%). Highs 84-90. Variable 5 mph.
Tonight: A few evening showers and storms. Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 63-68. Light wind.
Sunday: Partly sunny with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-87. Southeast wind 5-10 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy and seasonable. Lows 60-65. Light wind.
Monday: Mostly to partly sunny. 20% chance of showers/storms. East wind 5 mph.
We are tracking a typical race-week pattern in the StormTrack 5 Weather Center. A slow-moving frontal system remains north of the News 5 WCYB viewing area. Warm and moist air has been flowing into the southern Appalachians. This front will push through the region in "backdoor" fashion this afternoon, triggering some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the process.
Upper level flow from the northwest will steer any storms that do develop from the northwest to the southeast, like the three days past. This upper level pattern also makes storm development tough to predict, as we rely on the instability of the atmosphere, lift along the front, and pulses in the upper levels to carry the activity downstream into our region. Still, it appears as though (like clockwork) that the best chance of rain today will be in the afternoon through the evening hours.
A few storms could be strong to locally severe. The main dangers from any storm will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain and small hail. Keep an eye to the sky this afternoon and evening.
Outside of any rain, it will be hot and humid! "Feels like" temperatures will climb into the lower 90s. Don't forget to drink plenty of water!
StormTrack 5 meteorologists are tracking a ridge of high pressure that will strengthen just to the southwest of the Tri-Cities. As mentioned before, this will allow for a progression of weather disturbances to track from northwest to southeast across the Ohio Valley and into the southern Appalachians.
Tomorrow, early morning fog cannot be ruled out. Aside from that, our "backdoor" front remains to the southwest, with the upper level ridge pattern still in place. Southeast winds over the mountains at the surface will allow for some drier conditions and only a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The current thinking is that those storms would mainly be along the higher terrain.
As we start off the work week, the southeast is in a well-defined wedge pattern, with cooler conditions on the eastern side of the Appalachians and mostly fair weather on our side. We could see some impressive temperature differences from west to east in the viewing area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around for Race Weekend and the Appalachian Fair. Most of the time it will be dry, but when it rains it could be heavy.
The middle of the week features mostly to partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. Humidity will not be as oppressive as we have seen over the past couple of days. Come Thursday or Friday, the models are having a tough time with the upper level wind pattern. Part of this is due to the uncertainty of a disturbance in the Caribbean which could gain tropical storm status during the weekend.
We will continue to watch that system and its implications on our weather here in the Tri-Cities viewing area.
High temperatures this weekend in the mid to upper 80s and mid 80s during the week. Low temperatures overnight generally in the low to mid 60s.
7:30pm Irwin Tools 500-Scattered showers and thunderstorms 81°
You can get the latest forecast, radar, and severe weather alerts on News 5, WCYB.com, and on the StormTrack 5 weather app.
Our normal high is 85°, low 62°.
Meteorologists Chris Michaels