WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NC MOUNTAINS, GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND SMYTH COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
MARCH STARTS WARM AND WET AT TIMES...NOT SO MUCH LIKE A LION
Overnight: Mostly cloudy. Spotty showers and chance of wintry mix in higher elevations late. Lows 23-31. Light SE wind.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy but much warmer. Period of light rain early. Highs 45-52. Light SW wind.
Sunday Night: Rain developing again overnight. Patchy morning fog possible. Lows 35-40. South wind 5 mph
Monday: Early rain showers. Clearing at times. Seasonably cool. Highs 44-49. Winds north 5 mph.
High pressure has kept things very comfortable and contributed to some snow melt across portions of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. This same high pressure has resulted in much cooler conditions east of the Appalachian Mountains. As cold air continues to be wedged in, moisture from the south will aid in rain chances late tonight into early tomorrow.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until Sunday evening for the NC High Country up through Smyth County. Freezing rain is possible at times through Monday morning and could lead to slick road conditions through the early part of the day. Regardless of where you are and if you see rain or not, re-freezing overnight will lead to some icy spots on the roads, especially secondary roads in areas hit hard by last week's snowstorms.
Sunday will start off with a few rain showers, but be mostly dry and warmer by the afternoon. Expect temperatures to run close to average as high pressure sets us up with a weak southerly flow. This same warm, moist flow will be largely responsible for the period of light rain showers we'll see overnight Sunday into Monday. The majority of lifting in the atmosphere will be north of us, so rain will be light. Some northern parts of our areas might see a few flurries or snow showers into Monday morning.
By Monday afternoon, most forecast models are picking up on high pressure that will come in and serve as relief to those light rain showers. Expect a few breaks in the clouds with temperature in the mid to upper 40s.
Come Tuesday, we will see another flow of moisture entering the region. This will favor temperatures to run above the average Tuesday and Wednesday. Air flow will run parallel to a cold front especially on Wednesday, so showers and winds could become heavy at times. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few renegade thunderstorms Wednesday as a result. With heavy rain in the forecast especially by mid-week, we will need to be alert for the dangers of rising water on streams/rivers next week. The combination of warmer temperatures, melting snow, and locally heavy rain will result in potential flood concerns for those left with snowpack. Roofs may feel some additional stress from melting snowpack and heavy rainfall.
Late Wednesday and early Thursday, colder air rushes into the Tri-Cities behind a departing cold front. As this cold front departs, a swath of upper level energy passes through. Snow showers will be possible on Thursday, and some models are coming into agreement with this. This could be a quick swing from warmer air to snow showers. I don't anticipate widespread moderate accumulation thanks to warm surface temperatures in the days before. Stay tuned as details still need to be ironed out.
High pressure fills back in Saturday and Sunday. Lots of sunshine can be expected, but high temperatures will run below the average once again.
Highs Sunday in the lower 50s...mainly in the 50s to near 60 Monday through Wednesday...30s Thursday and 40s Friday and Saturday. Lows in the mid 20s to near 30 tonight, near 40 Sunday and Monday nights, and 40s Tuesday night.
Our average high is 54°, low 31°.
Meteorologist Chris Michaels