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Big changes in our weather pattern starting now through the weekend

This summer has been the 4th driest on record so far, with 14 of the last 26 days reaching into the 90s.  By now, we're wanting change - a wetter and cooler change.  Luckily, that may be on deck as we head into the weekend.

Today's warm air, humidity and a weak weather disturbance moving through will team up to provide us with scattered showers and storms through early evening.  While the threat for severe weather is low, some of us will luck out with heavy rain.  Check the latest 12 hour FutureTrack here.

Heading into Friday, we'll be keeping track of a stronger cold front that will usher in the more noticeable change. But this doesn't come easily, forecasting-wise. 

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a 'Slight' or Level 2 risk of severe thunderstorms on Friday, but I'm not so quick to jump at that.  Our atmosphere looks pretty water logged on Friday, which implies little difference in temperature from the surface to the ground up.  In order for strong-to-severe storms to form, there needs to be that temperature difference.

In addition, we'll have to watch the wind direction over the mountains.  A perfect south or southeast wind could dry out the lower levels of the atmosphere and even cut into our rain totals a bit Friday afternoon.  This is starting to look like a good possibility. 

IF that doesn't happen, rain totals could exceed an inch and lead to minor stream/creek flooding by Friday afternoon.  You can see just how 'all-or-nothing' this forecast really is, and it just depends on wind direction over the Appalachian Mountains.

Be sure to stay tuned for updates on the forecast!

 

After this front passes through, the real changes will be felt this weekend.  Temperatures won't be nearly as hot, nor will the humidity be as obnoxious.  Highs each afternoon will be in the upper 70s and low 80s, whereas nighttime lows drop into the 50s.  Talk about refreshing!

This is clearly a very changeable forecast, as the atmosphere is pretty volatile right now.  Be sure to check back for updates over the next 24-48 hours. 


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